Unfortunately i start the day with the sad news of an Ethiopian Airlines 737-800MAX crashing shortly after takeoff from Addis Adaba enroute to Nairobi.
With a scheduled departure time of 0515Z, the MAX 8, ET-AVJ, built by Boeing and delivered only recently departed the airfield at 0538Z before it was lost on FR24 at 0541Z at 8600ft MSL. It then crashed within the vicinity of the loss of tracking with all 157 onboard reported perished.
The airport itself though lies at 7631ft MSL and is the lowest point in the city putting the aircraft at last contact at only around 1000ft MSL with it seeming to hold at that altitude for a short time prior to the crash although the altitude did vary slightly which is most likely due to inacurate data or adjustments by autopilot due to change in ground level.
My Immediate Analysis
After analysing the little evidence we have currently i believe that the cause of the crash was a rapid uncontrolled descent of which pilots would be unable to recover from at onoy approx 1000ft AGL. This can be backed up by images from the site showing hundreds of small pieces of debris scattered all over the crash site and a large crater whereas in a controlled landing you would be more likely to see the fuselage broken into multiple large pieces and you would also expect survivors. Unfortunately this would put it similar to the Lion air Max8 Crash recently which occured under in similar circumstances. More Info, some contradicting has been published. I’ll update this later where possible.
Note: I do not want to see comments like “Oh no, 2019 is going to be another bad year”, fixed wing flight is still the safest method of travel by a long way and recent years such as 2017 were exceptional years. Data shows 2018 was an average year. Also remember 157 persons perished so be respectful.